Advanced mathematical approaches are revolutionizing risk assessment in chemical industry parks
Imagine this emergency alert: "Explosion reported at Zhao County Industrial Park—multiple casualties feared, toxic cloud spreading." This isn't a scene from a disaster movie; it was reality in Hebei Province, where a lack of effective risk assessment prevented timely risk management 2 . Across the world, chemical parks cluster industrial facilities to maximize efficiency, but this concentration creates unprecedented safety challenges where a single incident can trigger catastrophic domino effects 7 .
Chemical parks cluster facilities for efficiency but create interconnected risk networks where incidents can cascade.
The AHP-fuzzy method combines structured decision-making with uncertainty mathematics for precise risk assessment.
Chemical industry parks represent a perfect storm of safety challenges. Unlike single factories, these industrial clusters contain multiple enterprises with interconnected risks—where a leak in one facility can trigger fires or explosions throughout the entire park 7 . The production and storage of hazardous chemicals involve numerous dangerous substances packed densely together, creating ideal conditions for domino-effect accidents with devastating consequences 7 .
Traditional risk assessment methods often fall short in this complex environment. Approaches like HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Study) rely heavily on static data and struggle to adapt to the dynamic risk evolution in modern chemical parks 2 . They cannot adequately handle the chain reactions caused by multiple types of enterprises operating in close proximity.
The AHP-fuzzy evaluation method emerges as a sophisticated solution to this challenge, combining structured decision-making with the mathematics of uncertainty to provide a more realistic and comprehensive risk assessment framework 1 2 .
Single incident → Multiple facility impact → Cascading consequences
The Analytic Hierarchy Process brings structure to complex decisions by breaking them down into manageable pieces. Developed by Thomas Saaty in the 1970s, AHP creates a hierarchical structure that resembles a family tree of risk factors 4 .
The true power of AHP lies in its pairwise comparison technique. Instead of guessing which factors matter most, experts compare them two at a time using a standardized scale 1 4 .
While AHP provides structure, fuzzy logic brings flexibility in dealing with uncertainty. Traditional yes/no, true/false binary logic falls short when assessing real-world risks where boundaries are blurred.
Fuzzy set theory, pioneered by Lotfi Zadeh in 1965, allows for gradual transitions between categories—concepts that humans understand intuitively but conventional mathematics struggles to capture 1 3 .
| Main Category | Specific Factors | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Technical Factors | Equipment failure, Safety system reliability | Mechanical failures and protection system effectiveness |
| Human Factors | Operator error, Emergency response training | Personnel competence and response capability |
| Management Factors | Safety procedures, Maintenance quality | Organizational systems and their implementation |
| Environmental Factors | Natural disasters, Adjacent facilities | External threats and domino effect potential |
Risk Level: Medium-High
Researchers conducted an extensive assessment of the Beijing Fangshan District Emergency Industrial Park to demonstrate the practical application of the AHP-fuzzy method 2 . The study first classified the diverse enterprises within the park into seven distinct categories based on their characteristics and associated safety risks 2 .
Safety experts then engaged in systematic pairwise comparisons to establish weighting priorities across multiple criteria levels. This process incorporated both quantitative data (like historical incident rates) and qualitative judgments (such as expert assessments of management quality) 2 .
| Enterprise Type | Primary Risk Characteristics | Emergency Probability Level |
|---|---|---|
| New Energy Storage | Lithium battery explosions, Thermal runaway | High |
| Medical & Healthcare | Biological agent leaks, Chemical exposure | Medium-High |
| Composite Materials | Flammable substances, Toxic emissions | Medium |
| Intelligent Manufacturing | Electrical fires, Machinery accidents | Medium |
| Mechanical Manufacturing | Equipment failures, Mechanical hazards | Medium-Low |
The analysis provided both macro-level risk assessments for the entire industrial park and micro-level evaluation of specific risk sources 2 . The AHP-FCE model successfully identified high-risk links where emergencies like fires and explosions were most likely to occur, enabling targeted preventive measures 2 .
The study demonstrated that the integrated AHP-fuzzy approach could handle the multi-source heterogeneity of fire risks in emergency industrial parks that traditional methods struggled to assess comprehensively 2 .
Conducting comprehensive emergency probability assessment requires both conceptual frameworks and practical tools. Below are key "research reagents" essential for implementing the AHP-fuzzy evaluation method in chemical park safety.
| Research Reagent | Function in Assessment Process | Application Example |
|---|---|---|
| Expert Panels | Provide subjective judgments for pairwise comparisons | Safety managers, process engineers, and emergency responders rate risk factors |
| Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFNs) | Represent uncertain expert judgments mathematically | Converting linguistic terms like "somewhat important" to (3, 5, 7) on Saaty's scale |
| Saaty's Fundamental Scale | Standardize comparison intensity between factors | Using values 1-9 to represent equal to extreme importance between risk factors |
| Consistency Index (CI) | Measure logical coherence of expert judgments | Identifying contradictory ratings (e.g., A>B, B>C, but C>A) |
| Fuzzy Membership Functions | Quantify degree of belonging to risk categories | Calculating how much a risk factor belongs to "high," "medium," or "low" categories |
| Linguistic Variables | Bridge human judgment and mathematical processing | Converting terms like "high probability" to fuzzy numerical values |
The AHP-fuzzy method systematically incorporates diverse expert opinions while managing subjectivity and uncertainty.
Triangular fuzzy numbers allow for flexible representation of uncertainty in expert assessments.
The integration of AHP with fuzzy logic represents just one frontier in the evolution of chemical park safety assessment. Researchers are now exploring how to combine these methods with other advanced technologies to create even more powerful predictive systems 7 .
Combining with Human Reliability Analysis methods like CREAM for quantitative assessment of human error probability 7 .
Coupling with geographic information systems to visualize risk distribution spatially across chemical parks.
Connecting with Bayesian networks to create dynamic risk models that update as conditions change 7 .
The AHP-fuzzy evaluation method represents a paradigm shift in how we approach chemical park safety. By marrying the structured decision-making of AHP with fuzzy logic's ability to handle uncertainty, this methodology brings sophisticated mathematical rigor to the complex, real-world challenge of preventing industrial emergencies 1 2 .
As chemical parks continue to evolve and expand globally, the importance of accurate emergency probability assessment only grows. The approach outlined here doesn't just react to accidents—it aims to predict and prevent them through systematic analysis and scientific reasoning 2 .
While the mathematics behind triangular fuzzy numbers and pairwise comparison matrices may remain invisible to the public, the ultimate outcome of their application is anything but hidden: safer industrial facilities, protected communities, and prevention of catastrophic accidents through the power of predictive science 1 2 .
The integration of AHP and fuzzy logic provides a robust framework for assessing complex, interconnected risks in chemical industry parks, enabling proactive safety measures and potentially saving lives.